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BBC MLP, and a poll.

By rdskutter (Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 06:47:56 AM EST) (all tags)

There's a non-story on the front page of BBC news about how a man didn't win

I don't see what all the fuss is about. He put

< Well. | BBC White season: 'Rivers of Blood' >

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Votes: 6
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BBC MLP, and a poll. | 10 comments (10 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback

The horses by Herring (3.00 / 0) #1 Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 07:28:20 AM EST

I've written a simulation recently (rather than working) for lucky 15s* (easily adaptable for Heinz 57s etc.). Assuming that my measure of the "bookie's juice" is correct, it suggests that you can come up slightly on top by running lucky 15s on around 6:1 horses. Running on favourites (say 2-3:1) works out worse as does running on outsiders (20-100:1).

The method is quite simple: simulate each race using a Poisson distribution to give win/not. Assume 10% bookie's juice (i.e. a 6:1 horse has a 6.6:1 chance of winning) and run the simulation for the entire 4 horse thing repeatedly. Anyhow, this is about as close as I can figure to hedging on horse racing.

*Lucky 15: A bet on 4 different horses in 4 different races. There are 15 individual bets, they are:

4 winners
6 doubles
4 trebles
1 4-way accumulator.

So, assuming that all are priced at 6:1 and you bet £1 on each bet, should one horse come in you get £6 + £1 stake back. If it's two horses, you get £12 + £36 (the double) plus £3 stake back etc. If all four come in, you get £2,400 + all your stake back. Oh yeah - something about taxes.

I don't bet very often (a couple of times a year) but when I do, I run this strategy and it hasn't failed me yet. OK, I haven't had a big win (bloke down the pub got £3,000 off a lucky 15 with a £5 bet) but I haven't lost either.

I'm English, and as such I crave disappointment. - Bill Bailey

Poisson distribution? by gazbo (3.00 / 0) #3 Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 07:39:20 AM EST

My stats is pretty rusty, but it seems that a poisson distribution is an inappropriate distribution to be using. Surely it's only appropriate for measuring the probability of k events happening in a certain period given a mean of m? I can't see how you'd fudge that to pick the winning horse from a race.

"Engarde!" cried the larvae, huskily. - Scrymarch

[ Parent ]

: Well by Herring (3.00 / 0) #4 Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 07:46:04 AM EST

It was the one I had to hand. Probability of 1 events (a win) happening given a mean (1 / (odds + juice)). I've used it before for a similar-ish task using state transitions and had an actuary confirm it as OK. Admittedly the racing simulator hasn't been subject to the same scrutiny but the results look roughly in line with what I'd expect.

I'm English, and as such I crave disappointment. - Bill Bailey
[ Parent ]

I might be being stupid by TPD (3.00 / 0) #7 Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 09:36:48 AM EST

but I think a 6/1 at 1/6.6 is just a bet in your favour!

Rock Hard Abs are just a sw-sw-swivel away!
[ Parent ]

: I think I was being stupid by TPD (3.00 / 0) #8 Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 09:52:37 AM EST

I was taking it that you were exquating 6.6:1 to a 1/6.6 ~ 0.152 chance of winning (but what probablility are you saying that a 6.6:1 actually maps to?)

Rock Hard Abs are just a sw-sw-swivel away!
[ Parent ]

Hmm by OAB (3.00 / 0) #10 Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 03:09:39 PM EST

Next time I am -

Sober
At home
Not playing Rome: Total War

I am going to try running that past the data I have been grabbing from the Sporting Life.

And yes, this comment is here just to remind me.

[ Parent ]

Lottery by ad hoc (6.00 / 1) #2 Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 07:30:26 AM EST

on the very few times I've played, I haven't even won a free ticket.

What's your method?
--

Plz note the new e-mail, kthx

I just got lucky by rdskutter (3.00 / 0) #5 Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 08:06:12 AM EST

If you match 3 numbers out of 6 (from a pool of 49) then you win
"BEEN A BIT CARELESS HAVEN'T WE" - Mr Death
[ Parent ]

: That's better than here by ad hoc (3.00 / 0) #6 Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 08:46:28 AM EST

I think match-3 gets you a free ticket. You have to match-4 to start getting any cash. But then, there are so many games, it's hard to keep track.
--

Plz note the new e-mail, kthx
[ Parent ]

Thought I had won 2 mill once by cam (3.00 / 0) #9 Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 10:28:55 AM EST

The winning ticket was at the shop I bought it at, and was late (1 week) in coming in. I had forgotten about it until a workmate said, the winning ticket is from that shop and hasnt been claimed. I said it wouldnt be me but I would check it anyway. By the end of the day I had already spent the money in my head but when I got up to the shop the Lotto lady told me the ticket had already been claimed. So it wasnt me.

btw I didnt win anything on my ticket either.

cam
Freedom, liberty, equity and an Australian Republic
[ Parent ]

BBC MLP, and a poll. | 10 comments (10 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback

-	Happy to win	50%
-	Very very pissed off because you didn't win a million	0%
-	Planning to execute the chappie who disqualified the winning horse	33%
-	Planning to commit suicide	16%
-	Desperately working out how to work another accumulator so that you can get another chance to win	0%


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